Temple will upset Michigan State

It is time to fill out a bracket. Filling-out a bracket becomes increasingly difficult with the more knowledge of college basketball you have. For example, a 12 seed typically knocks off a 5 seed. This year the 12 vs. 5 match-ups seem like toss-ups.

(12) Villanova vs. (5) Clemson
(12)George Mason vs. (5) Notre Dame
(12) Western Kentucky vs (5) Drake
(12) Temple vs. (5) Michigan State

Judging these match-ups based on pure instinct I would have to say that Temple is most likely to upset Michigan State. Temple plays in the Atlantic 10 Conference, they are no longer coached by John Chaney (that has nothing to do with it). Temple won their conference tournament in a fairly strong league. The Temple Owls have won seven straight games, while Michigan State is 5-5 over their last 10 games.

My next possible upset would be Villanova over Clemson. Clemson was runner ups in the 2007 NIT and they are the more experienced of the two teams.

Villanova, though, played in a tougher conference this year, the Big East. Nova is 7-8 vs. the RPI top 50 and 2-4 vs. the top 25. One statistic that jumps off the page is the fact that Nova is 4-1 when playing in Neutral Courts.

Clemson is 0-3 vs. the Top 25 and 2-5 vs. the RPI top 50. Clemson is 1-1 when playing in Neutral Courts.

Temple is 3-5 vs the RPI Top 50 and 1-3 vs. the RPI Top 25. Temple is ranked 47th in the RPI. Their opponent, Michigan State is 16th in the RPI. The Spartans are 4-5 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 25. Michigan State is 7-7 in games played on the road and on neutral courts. Temple is 8-8 overall in games played on the road and neutral courts.

Drake is the least likely of all five seeds to get upset. Drake has a high RPI, an undefeated record on neutral courts and a 6-1 recored vs. the RPI Top 50.

I have identified what I believe to be the most important factors for determining upset: road record, neutral record, record vs. RPI Top 50, record vs. RPI Top 25 and Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

RPI SOS Top 25 Top 50 Road Neutral

TU 47 42 1-3 3-5 7-5 1-3

MS 16 50 4-4 4-5 4-6 3-1

GM 61 126 1-1 2-1 5-7 5-2

ND 26 83 2-4 6-5 5-4 2-2

Nova 51 52 2-4 7-8 4-7 4-1

Clem 19 34 0-3 2-5 7-5 1-1

Drake 10 64 1-0 6-1 10-3 4-0

WKU 39 142 0-2 1-4 10-3 4-1


WKU- Western Kentucky
Drake-Drake
Clem- Clemson
Nova- Villanova
MS- Michigan State
ND- Notre Dame
GM- George Mason
TU- Temple